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Wildfire Prediction Research
Accurately predicting when and where wildfires might break out is vitally important for effective fire management, especially when considering human-ignited events like arson and accidental starts. By leveraging advanced forecasting models that exploit spatial and temporal trends, agencies can move beyond reactive suppression and implement proactive, optimized intervention strategies. This capability allows resource managers to strategically pre-position personnel and equipment in high-risk areas identified by the forecast, maximizing the net benefits of their prevention efforts. Furthermore, forecasting helps ensure that scarce resources are deployed only when and where they are most needed, making prevention and management efforts fiscally responsible and scientifically sound.
- The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States
- Prestemon, J. P., Butry, D. T., & Thomas, D. S. (2016). The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: The case of tribal land units in the United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 25(4), 390–402. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15128
- Exploiting autoregressive properties to develop prospective urban arson forecasts by target
- Prestemon, J. P., Butry, D. T., & Thomas, D. S. (2013). Exploiting autoregressive properties to develop prospective urban arson forecasts by target. Applied Geography, 44, 143–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.07.015