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Evidential Statistics
Goal: To provide a thorough understanding of the uncertainty associated with scientific measurements or analytical techniques and a context for the interpretation of statistical results.
Why is NIST Involved in Evidential Statistics?
- Pattern evidence disciplines have faced criticism for being too subjective and that more empirical support from algorithmic approaches is needed for evidence evaluation and communication.
- Likelihood ratios are often used to provide a statistical evaluation of forensic DNA evidence, and are increasingly being considered in other disciplines of pattern evidence. It is important to understand the common justifications for and limitations of using likelihood ratios in forensic science.
- LRs, like all interpretations, are opinions. In a given case, there is no single correct LR. LRs are dependent on modeling choices, data processing protocols, and expert judgement calls. The range of plausible LR values depends on what models are considered and the criteria used to assess whether a given model is plausible.
Selected Projects:
- Assessing Case-specific Performance from General Validation Data
- Bayesian Reasoning and Evidence Communication
- Assessing Calibration of Likelihood Ratio Systems
- Analysis of Footwear Evidence
- Error Rate Assessment for Firearms and Toolmark Analysis
- Optimization of GC/MS for Fire Debris
- Analysis of Footwear Evidence
- Error Rate Assessment for Firearms and Toolmark Analysis
- Optimization of GC/MS for Fire Debris
- Development of SRM 2391d: PCR-Based DNA Profiling Standard
- Reference Material for Trace Elements in Glass
- Assessment of Analytical Thresholds for Capillary Electrophoresis STR Profiles
- Development of SRM 2391d: PCR-Based DNA Profiling Standard
- Reference Material for Trace Elements in Glass
- Assessment of Analytical Thresholds for Capillary Electrophoresis STR Profiles
Associated Links
News
Spotlight: The Human Touch Behind Some of Our Earliest Calculations
This month marks the 75th anniversary of mathematics and statistics as a staple in NIST’s organization. Today, we look at one face behind the fractions.
Contacts
Forensic Science Research Evidential Statistics Focus Area Lead
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(301) 975-2604