Understanding the Risk of Lithium-Ion Battery Fires - multi-source data analysis

Published

March 10, 2026

Author(s)

Stanley Gilbert, Hongqiang Fang, David Butry, Wai Cheong Tam, Michelle Donnelly, Juan Fung

Abstract

Lithium ion battery (LIB) fires are a growing problem that extends across the supply chain, including mining, production, warehousing, shipping, and waste disposal, as well as the consumer side. But data on such fires is fragmented and mostly incomplete. Many are secondary data sources, and for NFIRS and the CPSC data sets identification of LIB fires is difficult. Multiple independent data sources make it possible to estimate numbers on some types of fires. There have been an estimated 5718 (95 %CI: 2866 – 10 846) electric vehicle and plugin hybrid fires, and an estimated 198 000 (95 %CI: 84 000 – 465 000) LIB fires in structures since 2011. Plugin electric vehicle fires are growing at the rate of about 45 % (± 11.3 %) per year. Consumer LIB fires appear to be growing at a rate of 10 % (CI: 7.1 – 13.0) per year. The findings indicate a substantial underestimation in current reporting.

Citation

Technical Note (NIST TN) - 2365

Report Number

2365

NIST Pub Series

Technical Note (NIST TN)

Pub Type

NIST Pubs

Download Paper

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2365

Local Download

Keywords

Lithium Ion Batteries, Fire, NFIRS, AI Analysis, Battery Electric Vehicles, Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Citation

Gilbert, S. , FANG, H. , Butry, D. , Tam, W. , Donnelly, M. and Fung, J. (2026), Understanding the Risk of Lithium-Ion Battery Fires - multi-source data analysis, Technical Note (NIST TN), National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, [online], https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2365, https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=960862 (Accessed March 11, 2026)