ACMD Seminar: Methane Emissions Estimates: Inference from Noisy Measurements

 

Abstract: The Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC), part of Colorado State University, studies methane emissions from oil and gas sites and the technologies used to measure them. This talk will introduce work by METEC’s modeling group, focusing on a project to estimate regional and state-wide methane emissions using measurements taken by aircraft. Frequent small emissions, which historically have been difficult to measure, are believed to account for a significant portion of the total mass emitted, and estimating these small emissions is a central problem in this area. When sufficient measurement data is not available, these emissions are commonly simulated using Monte-Carlo methods. On the other hand, continually improving measurement technologies have allowed for an increasing ability to measure these small emissions; this improves the amount of data available but emphasizes the need for careful statistical inference using these measurements, which come with large uncertainties. Our current work aims to combine recently developed error models for the measurement technologies with techniques for estimating distributions from noisy data to produce unbiased emissions estimates. Importantly, this allows for a resampling procedure that reflects the characteristics of the measurement technology, which allows us to estimate uncertainties.

 

Bio: Michael Moy works as a Research Scientist for the Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) at Colorado State University. With a focus on mathematical modeling, his research areas include short-range dispersion modeling and data analysis techniques for estimating regional methane emissions. Michael did his PhD and MS in Mathematics at Colorado State University, where his research was in topological data analysis. During the summers of his graduate program, he worked as an intern at the NASA Glenn Research Center. He previously earned his BS in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado at Boulder and also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in music

 

Host: Evgeniya Lagoda

 

Note: This talk will be recorded to provide access to NIST staff and associates who could not be present to the time of the seminar. The recording will be made available in the Math channel on NISTube, which is accessible only on the NIST internal network. This recording could be released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. Do not discuss or visually present any sensitive (CUI/PII/BII) material. Ensure that no inappropriate material or any minors are contained within the background of any recording. (To facilitate this, we request that cameras of attendees are muted except when asking questions.)