A Literature Review of Disaster-Induced Business Interruption and an Exploratory Analysis of the Effects of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Florida Establishments at the Zip Code Level

Published

November 15, 2016

Author(s)

David H. Webb, Stanley W. Gilbert

Abstract

As an exploratory analysis, demographic data from the 2000 Census and 2011 American Community Survey at the Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code level are used in conjunction with damage estimates from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to model the effects of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season on Florida. Data on the number of establishments by industry and ZIP code were obtained from the Census County Business Patterns datasets. To prevent the 2007 to 2009 recession from adding a convoluting effect, a time period from 2000 to 2006 was selected. The analysis also assumes that the 2004 season was a distinct and severe enough event that its impacts are distinguishable from general trends in the data. Analysis was also broken into coastal regions and inland regions to lessen any possible endogeneity. The change in the number of establishments was selected as the independent variable as specific data on closures and the reasons why were unavailable. A difference in differences, as well as a graphical, analysis on the change in number of establishments indicate reasons to view 2004 as a significant event, however due to the multitude of convoluting factors affecting a state’s economy it is impossible to attribute the full effect to the 2004 season. Fixed effect regressions using first differences were also run looking at the impact of demographic factors on the change in number of establishments. Regression results were rendered inconsistent by an endogeneity issue; however the general method here did produce interesting results when incorporating time-fixed effects. The regression results imply demographics have a mixed impact; bearing in mind the estimator was inconsistent due to endogeneity. Overall the developed process seems viable for use in other instances, provided more complete data is available.

Citation

Technical Note (NIST TN) - 1932

Report Number

1932

NIST Pub Series

Technical Note (NIST TN)

Pub Type

NIST Pubs

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DOI Link

Citation

Webb, D. and Gilbert, S. (2016), A Literature Review of Disaster-Induced Business Interruption and an Exploratory Analysis of the Effects of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Florida Establishments at the Zip Code Level, Technical Note (NIST TN), National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, [online], https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.1932 (Accessed April 18, 2024)