ESCAPE

The devastation of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires has been felt across the United States and beyond, with entire communities reduced to ash in a matter of hours. As the speed and intensity of these fires continue to increase, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is providing communities with important evacuation planning information by releasing an updated version of its WUI Fire Evacuation and Sheltering Considerations: Assessment, Planning, and Execution (ESCAPE).

This guidance is more than just a set of recommendations — it is a lifeline for emergency managers, first responders, and community leaders who must make split-second decisions to save lives. Drawing on lessons learned from recent catastrophic fires like the 2018 Camp Fire and insights from new wildfire evacuation modeling, NIST’s updated ESCAPE report provides a strategic blueprint for navigating the chaos of WUI fire evacuations.

Why This Matters Now More Than Ever

Wildfires are no longer confined to rural forests; they are invading neighborhoods, destroying homes, and leaving communities with minutes, not hours, to escape. The traditional approach to evacuation is being tested like never before, with fires outrunning emergency notifications and cutting off egress routes before residents can leave.

In response to this growing crisis, NIST has revised its 2023 guidance to better communicate the realities of modern WUI fires, emphasizing real-world challenges and innovative solutions to improve survival rates, to be relevant to 2025 and on.

“Time is everything when it comes to wildfire evacuations,” said Alexander Maranghides at NIST. “This updated guidance offers communities a science-backed approach to planning for the worst-case scenario, because we’ve seen, time and time again, that these fires are unforgiving.”

Key Updates and Innovations in the 2025 ESCAPE Guidance

Introducing Temporary Fire Refuge Areas (TFRAs)

For many in Paradise, CA, evacuation was simply not an option. Roads became impassable due to intense traffic congestion, and flames rapidly advanced, cutting off escape routes. First responders quickly improvised, directing evacuees to makeshift Temporary Refuge Areas (TRAs). This included empty parking lots, cleared fields, and even the middle of wide roadways where fire intensity was lower. Many who survived did so because of these last-minute emergency decisions. Recognizing the need for pre-planned, designated refuge areas, NIST has introduced the related concept of Temporary Fire Refuge Areas (TFRAs), which offer communities structured locations designed to increase survival odds when evacuation is no longer possible. These areas are identified in advance and designed to be more resistant to ember storms, radiant heat, and direct flame contact.

Addressing No-Notice Fire Events

The 2018 Camp Fire moved so quickly that many residents were trapped before they even received evacuation warnings. Similar disasters, like the Maui wildfires of 2023, left people with no time to react. In Paradise, the fire advanced at an average rate of one football field every second, forcing emergency managers into reactive, rather than proactive, decision-making. The updated ESCAPE framework acknowledges that not all fires provide advance warning. It emphasizes pre-planning for no-notice evacuations, ensuring that communities have clear protocols for immediate action. This includes ensuring multiple evacuation routes, pre-designating TFRAs and safety zones, and using multiple methods of emergency communication to ensure that residents receive alerts in time to act.

A Shift from “Trigger Zones” to “Decision Zones”

Terminology related to “trigger zones” or “trigger points” has been updated to “decision zones” throughout the report based on feedback from first responder and emergency management agencies. They indicated that the term “trigger point” was outdated and misleading and suggested reactionary or instantaneous snap decisions, while in reality the situation is being constantly monitored as the incident progresses. Numerous criteria are considered for decision support and myriad combinations of conditions can influence a particular decision. The Decision Zone framework introduces a flexible, proactive approach to support evacuation decisions. It integrates fire behavior predictions with real-time evacuation feasibility, allowing emergency managers to assess evolving conditions and make informed, life-saving decisions before it’s too late.

The Real Cost of Being Unprepared

Wildfires do not wait for emergency responders to catch up, and history has shown that when communities are unprepared, the consequences can be catastrophic. Nowhere was this more evident than in the 2018 Camp Fire, one of the deadliest and most destructive wildfires in California history. When the fire ignited early on the morning of November 8, it spread so quickly that by the time emergency alerts were sent, some neighborhoods were already ablaze. Paradise, CA, a town of over 26,000 residents, had just minutes to react. Gridlocked traffic on the town’s limited evacuation routes trapped families in their vehicles as flames leapt across roads, embers rained down, and structures erupted in fire. Some residents made desperate decisions—abandoning cars and fleeing on foot, seeking shelter in makeshift locations like parking lots or even the center of roads. Others never made it out.

The updated ESCAPE guidance is designed to prevent such tragedies. By incorporating real-world data and analysis from past disasters, including the Camp Fire, this framework provides communities with tools to prepare before the flames arrive. The report emphasizes the necessity of proactive evacuation planning, the use of multiple emergency alert systems, the importance of clearly designated evacuation routes free of hazardous fuel loads, and the identification of Temporary Fire Refuge Areas that can serve as last-resort safety zones when escape is no longer possible.

What Comes Next

Looking ahead, NIST is committed to ensuring that the Decision Zone framework and other ESCAPE recommendations evolve through ongoing research, testing, and adaptation.

NIST will also collaborate with state and local governments to integrate ESCAPE recommendations into official wildfire response plans, ensuring that they align with regional challenges and infrastructure limitations. This includes expanding the identification and preparation of Temporary Fire Refuge Areas in high-risk communities, strengthening evacuation route resilience through fuel reduction and improved road design, and incorporating emergency communication redundancies to prevent gaps in information flow during a crisis.

Another vital focus is public engagement. NIST will work alongside fire departments, urban planners, and community leaders to promote education campaigns, evacuation preparedness drills, and targeted outreach in fire-prone areas. These efforts will ensure that ESCAPE principles are not just theoretical but actively practiced at the local level, helping communities become more resilient and responsive when wildfires strike.

Ultimately, the ESCAPE framework is not a static document, it is a living guide that will be continuously updated to incorporate new data, technological advancements, and lessons learned from future wildfire events. NIST remains dedicated to evolving these strategies, ensuring that WUI communities stay ahead of the growing wildfire threat and have the tools they need to protect lives and property.