UNCERTAINTY IN MULTI-SCALE FATIGUE LIFE MODELING AND A NEW APPROACH TO ESTIMATING FREQUENCY OF IN-SERVICE INSPECTION OF AGING COMPONENTS

Published

March 15, 2018

Author(s)

Jeffrey T. Fong, Nathanael A. Heckert, James J. Filliben, Stephen W. Freiman

Abstract

Uncertainty in modeling the fatigue life of a full-scale component using experimental data at microscopic (Level 1), specimen (Level 2), and full-size (Level 3) scales, is addressed by applying statistical theory of prediction intervals, and that of tolerance intervals based on the concept of coverage, p . Using a nonlinear least squares fit algorithm and the physical assumption that the one-sided Lower Tolerance Limit ( LTL ), at 95 % confidence level, of the fatigue life, i.e., the minimum cycles-to-failure, minNf , of a full-scale component, cannot be negative as the lack or "Failure" of coverage ( Fp ), defined as 1 - p , approaches zero, we develop a new fatigue life model, where the minimum cycles-to-failure, minNf , at extremely low "Failure" of coverage, Fp , can be estimated. Since the concept of coverage is closely related to that of an inspection strategy, and if one assumes that the predominent cause of failure of a full-size component is due to the "Failure" of inspection or coverage, it is reasonable to equate the quantity, Fp , to a Failure Probability, FP , thereby leading to a new approach of estimating the frequency of in-service inspection of a full-size component. To illustrate this approach, we include a numerical example using the published data of the fatigue of an AISI 4340 steel (Dowling, 1973) and a linear least squares fit to generate the necessary uncertainties for performing a dynamic risk analysis, where a graphical plot of an estimate of risk with uncertainty vs. a predicted most likely date of a high consequence failure event becomes available. In addition, a nonlinear least squares logistic function fit of the fatigue data yields a prediction of the statistical distribution of both the ultimate strength and the endurance limit.

Citation

Strength, Fracture and Complexity

Volume

11

Pub Type

Journals

Download Paper

https://doi.org/10.3233/SFC-180223

Local Download

Keywords

Aging component, AISI 4340 steel, coverage, dynamic risk analysis, endurance limit, failure of coverage, failure probability, fatigue life modeling, fracture mechanics, full-scale component, in-service inspection, least squares fit, logistic function, multi-scale, nonlinear least squares fit, nuclear powerplant, prediction intervals, risk-informed inspection strategy, statistical analysis, tolerance intervals, ultimate tensile strength, uncertainty quantification.

Citation

Fong, J. , Heckert, N. , Filliben, J. and Freiman, S. (2018), UNCERTAINTY IN MULTI-SCALE FATIGUE LIFE MODELING AND A NEW APPROACH TO ESTIMATING FREQUENCY OF IN-SERVICE INSPECTION OF AGING COMPONENTS, Strength, Fracture and Complexity, [online], https://doi.org/10.3233/SFC-180223 (Accessed April 25, 2024)