A Quantitative Approach to a Risk-Based Inspection Methodology of Main Steam and Hot Reheat Piping Systems

Published

July 27, 2008

Author(s)

Marvin J. Cohn, Jeffrey Fong, Philip M. Besuner

Abstract

This paper presents an evaluation of the failure probability and cost  of high energy piping (HEP) failures.  Using a conventional definition of risk as the product of failure probability and  failure  consequence, we  propose in this paper a dollar value of consequence  in order to develop a quantitative approach to risk-based  inspection  (RBI) methodology.  A 16-year historical database of probability and consequence was evaluated as an RBI methodology for devising a life management strategy for welds in main steam and hot reheat piping systems. This evaluation provides us the raw data necessary  for producing a concrete example of this new Richter-scale-like approach. Uncertainty in consequence and probability estimates is also provided in plotting (a) a static consequence vs. likelihood diagram at a specific time for comparing  the  relative severity of a variety of potential failures, and (b) a dynamic risk vs. time diagram for a specific hardware under continuous monitoring where the effect of life management decisions over a period of time is quantitatively displayed.    Significance  of  this  new  approach  to  risk-based inspection strategy for advancing the state-of-the-art of managing aging structures is discussed.

Proceedings Title

Proceedings of 2008 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Division Conference
July 27-31, 2008, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Conference Dates

July 27-31, 2008

Conference Location

Chicago, IL, USA

Pub Type

Conferences

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Keywords

Clamshell weld, consequence, design of experiments, duration histogram, fractional factorial design, girth weld, high energy piping, high impact low probability events, hot reheat piping systems, main steam piping systems, NERC-GADS, probability, risk-based inspection, seam weld, statistical data analysis, uncertainty estimation.

Citation

Cohn, M. , Fong, J. and Besuner, P. (2008), A Quantitative Approach to a Risk-Based Inspection Methodology of Main Steam and Hot Reheat Piping Systems, Proceedings of 2008 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Division Conference July 27-31, 2008, Chicago, Illinois, USA, Chicago, IL, USA, [online], https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=152117 (Accessed October 9, 2024)