NOTICE: Due to a lapse in annual appropriations, most of this website is not being updated. Learn more.
Form submissions will still be accepted but will not receive responses at this time. Sections of this site for programs using non-appropriated funds (such as NVLAP) or those that are excepted from the shutdown (such as CHIPS and NVD) will continue to be updated.
An official website of the United States government
Here’s how you know
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock (
) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.
Economic Decision Guide Software (EDGe$) with Loss Amplification and Risk Aversion: Wildfire Urban Interface (WUI) Case Studies
Published
Author(s)
Sherief Elsibaie, Bilal Ayyub, Jennifer Helgeson, Christina Gore, David Butry
Abstract
This report demonstrates by examples and case study as a proof of concept the use of loss amplification and risk aversion in benefit cost analysis (BCA) for community resilience planning. The report uses the NIST Economic Decision Guide Software (EDGe$) Online Tool, which assesses the economic feasibility of community resilience alternatives. Loss amplification arises from a catastrophe modeling method used to represent the increased costs associated with repair activity during a demand surge after a large catastrophe. Risk aversion is a measure of a community's (or other entity's) preference to avoid uncertainty. Risk aversion parameters can be used to compute certainty equivalent payoffs from uncertain payoffs and specific levels of risk aversion. A fictitious case study of wildfire disaster planning of a wildland-urban interface (WUI) is employed to demonstrate these two model enhancements (i.e., loss amplification and risk aversion) and their effects on the economic indicator outputs from EDGe$. The presented case study evaluates a binary development choice related to the resilience of a large presidential library from the perspective of two neighboring communities.
Elsibaie, S.
, Ayyub, B.
, Helgeson, J.
, Gore, C.
and Butry, D.
(2023),
Economic Decision Guide Software (EDGe$) with Loss Amplification and Risk Aversion: Wildfire Urban Interface (WUI) Case Studies, Special Publication (NIST SP), National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, [online], https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.SP.1296, https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=956723
(Accessed October 8, 2025)