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Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO2 Emissions

Published

Author(s)

Bert W. Rust

Abstract

Rust and Thijsse have shown that global annual average temperature anomalies T(ti) vary linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentrations c(ti). The c(ti) can be related to man-made CO2 emissions F(ti) by a linear regression model whose solution vector gives the unknown retention fractions γ(ti) of the F(ti) in the atmosphere. Gaps in the c(ti) record make the system underdetermined, but the constraints 0 <= γ(ti) <= 1 make estimation tractable. The γ(ti) are estimated by two methods: (1) assuming a finite harmonic expansion for γ(t), and (2) using a constrained least squares algorithm to compute average values of γ(t) on suitably chosen time subintervals. The two methods give consistent results and show that γ(t) declined non-monotonically from ~0.6 in 1850 to ~0.4$ in 2000.
Proceedings Title
Proceedings - MAMERN09: 3rd International Conference on Approximation Methods and Numerical Modeling in Environment and Natural Resources
Conference Dates
June 8-11, 2009
Conference Location
Pau

Keywords

atmospheric CO2, CO2 emissions, global temperatures, global warming

Citation

Rust, B. (2009), Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions, Proceedings - MAMERN09: 3rd International Conference on Approximation Methods and Numerical Modeling in Environment and Natural Resources, Pau, -1, [online], https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=902110 (Accessed April 15, 2024)
Created June 8, 2009, Updated February 19, 2017