Maps of Non-hurricane Non-tornadic Wind Speeds With Specified Mean Recurrence Intervals for the Contiguous United States Using a Two-Dimensional Poisson Process Extreme Value Model and Local Regression

Published

November 12, 2015

Author(s)

Adam L. Pintar, Emil Simiu, Franklin T. Lombardo, Marc L. Levitan

Abstract

This report describes a procedure for creating maps of non-hurricane, non-tornadic wind speeds for a set of recurrence intervals of interest between \num{10} and \num{100000} years over the contiguous United States. The procedure is carried out in two stages. In the first stage a peaks over threshold extreme value model is fitted to observed wind speeds from meteorological stations spread across the contiguous United States. The fitted model is then used to estimate wind speeds for all mean recurrence intervals of interest at each station. Potential differences between thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind speeds are accounted for by the model. The estimated wind speeds are then spatially smoothed using local regression to produce maps and associated uncertainties. Software was developed to facilitate plotting the maps and extracting values from them.

Citation

Special Publication (NIST SP) - 500-301

Report Number

500-301

NIST Pub Series

Special Publication (NIST SP)

Pub Type

NIST Pubs

Download Paper

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.SP.500-301

Keywords

Extreme Winds, Poisson Process, Local Regression, Mean Recurrence Interval, Map, Contiguous United States.

Citation

Pintar, A. , Simiu, E. , Lombardo, F. and Levitan, M. (2015), Maps of Non-hurricane Non-tornadic Wind Speeds With Specified Mean Recurrence Intervals for the Contiguous United States Using a Two-Dimensional Poisson Process Extreme Value Model and Local Regression, Special Publication (NIST SP), National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, [online], https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.SP.500-301 (Accessed October 21, 2025)