Cure probabilities and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer

Published

September 5, 2024

Author(s)

Eric Engels, Soutrik Mandal, Douglas Corley, Christopher Blosser, Allyson Hart, Charles Lynch, Baozhen Qiao, Karen Pawlish, Gregory Haber, Kelly Yu, Ruth Pfeiffer

Abstract

A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67 and decreased with advancing stage. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median cure probability at transplantation was 0.86. Patients with a cure probability below 0.80 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 2.44, 95% confidence interval 1.15-5.17). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (e.g., stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation exhibited high cure probabilities, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgement. Nonetheless, cure probabilities offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current candidate guidelines might be revised. We are developing a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate cure probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-…).

Citation

American Journal of Transplantation

Pub Type

Journals

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Citation

Engels, E. , Mandal, S. , Corley, D. , Blosser, C. , Hart, A. , Lynch, C. , Qiao, B. , Pawlish, K. , Haber, G. , Yu, K. and Pfeiffer, R. (2024), Cure probabilities and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer, American Journal of Transplantation, [online], https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=956576 (Accessed October 13, 2025)