Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Validating Predictive Models with Outdoor Data



Christopher C. White, Donald L. Hunston, Li Piin Sung, Hsiang C. Hsueh, Adam L. Pintar, Deborah S. Jacobs


The NIST service life prediction program has demonstrated success in producing validated predictions for the property change resulting from outdoor exposure for a range of polymer systems including Epoxy, Polyethylene, Polyester, Polyethylene terephthalate, and Polyurethane elastomers. These predictions, based on ASTM 1850, have included uncertainty calculations. In each of these systems, a predictive model grounded in laboratory exposure data is validated with outdoor exposure data. Two complications in the widespread adoption of these methods is that requirement that the formulations are designed to degrade prematurely commercially viable systems to produce these predictions in a reasonable amount of time and the limited availability of the exposure equipment. Both considerations can be addressed with the development of commercially viable exposure equipment. The efforts to incorporate this new equipment into the ASTM 1850 protocols will be detailed.
Natural and Artifical Ageing of Polymers
Publisher Info
GUS, Pfinztal, -1


Predictive model, service life prediction, polymer, sealant


White, C. , Hunston, D. , Sung, L. , Hsueh, H. , Pintar, A. and Jacobs, D. (2019), Validating Predictive Models with Outdoor Data, Natural and Artifical Ageing of Polymers, GUS, Pfinztal, -1 (Accessed May 20, 2024)


If you have any questions about this publication or are having problems accessing it, please contact

Created October 16, 2019, Updated August 25, 2020