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Quantifying Uncertainty in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing Models and Simulations



Tesfaye M. Moges, Wentao Yan, Stephen Lin, Gaurav Ameta, Jason C. Fox, Paul W. Witherell


Various sources of uncertainty that can potentially cause variability in the product quality exist at different stages of the laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process. To implement computational models and simulations for quality control and process optimization, quantitative representation of their predictive accuracy is required. In this study, a methodology to estimate uncertainties in L-PBF models and simulations is presented. The sources of uncertainty, including those due to modeling assumptions, numerical approximation, input parameters, and measurement error, are discussed in detail and quantified for low and high-fidelity melt pool simulation models. A design of experiments (DOE) approach is leveraged to quantify uncertainty due to input parameters and investigate their effects on output quantities of interest (QoIs). The result of this work is essential for understanding the tradeoffs in model fidelity and guiding the selection of a model suitable for its intended purpose.
Proceedings Title
Solid Freeform Fabrication 2018: Proceedings of the 29th Annual International Solid Freeform Fabrication Symposium
Conference Dates
August 13-15, 2018
Conference Location
Austin, TX
Conference Title
Solid Freeform Fabrication Symposium – An Additive Manufacturing Conference


Additive manufacturing, Powder bed fusion, Uncertainty quantification, Melt pool model, Design of experiment
Created November 6, 2018, Updated February 25, 2020