Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Performance evaluation of a manufacturing process under uncertainty using Bayesian networks



Sudarsan Rachuri, Sankaran Mahadevan, Saideep Nannapaneni


This paper proposes a systematic framework using Bayesian networks to integrate all uncertainty sources and available information for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the prediction of performance of a manufacturing process. Energy consumption, one of the key metrics of manufacturing process sustainability performance, is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The prediction of energy consumption is not straightforward due to the presence of uncertainty in many process variables and the models used for prediction. The uncertainty is both aleatory (statistical) and epistemic (lack of knowledge); both sources of uncertainty are considered in the proposed UQ methodology. The uncertainty sources occur at different stages of the manufacturing process and do not combine in a straightforward manner, thus a Bayesian network approach is found to be advantageous in uncertainty integration. A dimension reduction approach through variance-based global sensitivity analysis is proposed to reduce the number of variables in the system and facilitate scalability in high-dimensional problems. The proposed methodologies for uncertainty quantification and dimension reduction are demonstrated using two examples – an injection molding process and a welding process.
Journal of Cleaner Production


performance evaluation, uncertainty quantification, prediction, Bayes Networks, welding, injection modeling, manufacturing processes


Rachuri, S. , Mahadevan, S. and Nannapaneni, S. (2016), Performance evaluation of a manufacturing process under uncertainty using Bayesian networks, Journal of Cleaner Production, [online], (Accessed June 23, 2024)


If you have any questions about this publication or are having problems accessing it, please contact

Created February 29, 2016, Updated December 9, 2022