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Carbon Dioxide, Global Warming, and Michael Crichtons State of Fear



Bert W. Rust


In his recent novel, State of Fear (HarperCollins, 2004), Michael Crichton questioned the connection between global warming and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide by pointing out that for 1940-1970, temperatures were decreasing while atmospheric carbon dioxide was increasing. A reason for this contradiction was given at Interface 2003 [B.W. Rust, Computing Science and Statistics, 35 (2003) 263-277] where the temperature time series was well modelled by a 64.9 year cycle superposed on an accelerating baseline. For 1940-1970, the cycle decreased more rapidly than the baseline increased. We will soon enter another cyclic decline, but the temperature hiatus this time will be less dramatic because the baseline has accelerated. This paper demonstrates the connections between fossil fuel emissions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and global temperatures by simultaneously modelling their measured time series.
Computing Science and Statistics


carbon dioxide, fossil fuel emissions, global warming, greenhouse effect


Rust, B. (2006), Carbon Dioxide, Global Warming, and Michael Crichtons State of Fear, Computing Science and Statistics (Accessed April 23, 2024)
Created April 13, 2006, Updated February 17, 2017