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Publication Citation: Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO2 Emissions

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Author(s): Bert W. Rust;
Title: Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO2 Emissions
Published: June 08, 2009
Abstract: Rust and Thijsse have shown that global annual average temperature anomalies T(ti) vary linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentrations c(ti). The c(ti) can be related to man-made CO2 emissions F(ti) by a linear regression model whose solution vector gives the unknown retention fractions γ(ti) of the F(ti) in the atmosphere. Gaps in the c(ti) record make the system underdetermined, but the constraints 0 <= γ(ti) <= 1 make estimation tractable. The γ(ti) are estimated by two methods: (1) assuming a finite harmonic expansion for γ(t), and (2) using a constrained least squares algorithm to compute average values of γ(t) on suitably chosen time subintervals. The two methods give consistent results and show that γ(t) declined non-monotonically from ~0.6 in 1850 to ~0.4$ in 2000.
Proceedings: Proceedings - MAMERN09: 3rd International Conference on Approximation Methods and Numerical Modeling in Environment and Natural Resources
Pages: pp. 813 - 818
Location: Pau, -1
Dates: June 8-11, 2009
Keywords: atmospheric CO2; CO2 emissions; global temperatures; global warming
Research Areas: Math, Modeling, Environment/Climate
PDF version: PDF Document Click here to retrieve PDF version of paper (163KB)