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|Author(s):||Bert W. Rust;|
|Title:||Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO2 Emissions|
|Published:||June 08, 2009|
|Abstract:||Rust and Thijsse have shown that global annual average temperature anomalies T(ti) vary linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentrations c(ti). The c(ti) can be related to man-made CO2 emissions F(ti) by a linear regression model whose solution vector gives the unknown retention fractions γ(ti) of the F(ti) in the atmosphere. Gaps in the c(ti) record make the system underdetermined, but the constraints 0 <= γ(ti) <= 1 make estimation tractable. The γ(ti) are estimated by two methods: (1) assuming a finite harmonic expansion for γ(t), and (2) using a constrained least squares algorithm to compute average values of γ(t) on suitably chosen time subintervals. The two methods give consistent results and show that γ(t) declined non-monotonically from ~0.6 in 1850 to ~0.4$ in 2000.|
|Proceedings:||Proceedings - MAMERN09: 3rd International Conference on Approximation Methods and Numerical Modeling in Environment and Natural Resources|
|Pages:||pp. 813 - 818|
|Dates:||June 8-11, 2009|
|Keywords:||atmospheric CO2, CO2 emissions, global temperatures, global warming|
|Research Areas:||Math, Modeling, Environment/Climate|
|PDF version:||Click here to retrieve PDF version of paper (163KB)|