Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO2 Emissions

Published

June 8, 2009

Author(s)

Bert W. Rust

Abstract

Rust and Thijsse have shown that global annual average temperature anomalies T(t_i) vary linearly with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations c(t_i). The c(t_i) can be related to man-made CO₂ emissions F(t_i) by a linear regression model whose solution vector gives the unknown retention fractions γ(t_i) of the F(t_i) in the atmosphere. Gaps in the c(t_i) record make the system underdetermined, but the constraints 0 <= γ(t_i) <= 1 make estimation tractable. The γ(t_i) are estimated by two methods: (1) assuming a finite harmonic expansion for γ(t), and (2) using a constrained least squares algorithm to compute average values of γ(t) on suitably chosen time subintervals. The two methods give consistent results and show that γ(t) declined non-monotonically from ~0.6 in 1850 to ~0.4$ in 2000.

Proceedings Title

Proceedings - MAMERN09: 3rd International Conference on Approximation Methods and Numerical Modeling in Environment and Natural Resources

Conference Dates

June 8-11, 2009

Conference Location

Pau

Pub Type

Conferences

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Keywords

atmospheric CO2, CO2 emissions, global temperatures, global warming

Citation

Rust, B. (2009), Atmospheric Retention of Man-made CO₂ Emissions, Proceedings - MAMERN09: 3rd International Conference on Approximation Methods and Numerical Modeling in Environment and Natural Resources, Pau, -1, [online], https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=902110 (Accessed October 11, 2025)