The basic risky decision is defined as a decision for which an uncertain event, in addition to the alternative selected, defines the outcome. Beyond the uncertain event, additional uncertainties can enter a decision including the uncertainty in the attribute values used to assess the decision outcomes. When considering the selection of consumer products and services, formal and informal reviews of products and services are often used by consumers to estimate the level of satisfaction that will be received. When developing a decision model based on these data, attribute value uncertainty is often present and should be incorporated. In this chapter, we consider the uncertainty in the attribute values used to describe the possible outcomes. We present several approaches to incorporate attribute value uncertainty into the decision analysis for choosing a roofing firm based on customer review data.
Citation: Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions
Publisher Info: Springer, New York, NY
Pub Type: Book Chapters
Multiattribute Decision Analysis, Uncertainty, Consumer Satisfaction.